Tech is blooming right now and there’s talk that we’re in another tech bubble— bubble pop. My observations:
Mattermark Q2 2015 data shows that investments had peaked. We just witnessed the largest acquisition in tech history: $67 Billion for a data management company. Startups are hunting for talent: Angelist shows 60k companies hiring for 14.5k roles. New products are flowing into the market from all corners.
Marc Andreessen has an interesting way of explaining it, “Tech isn’t a bubble, it’s in a deployment phase.” Andreessen, the internet entrepreneur behind Netscape and lead VC at his A16z, argues that tech bubbles of the past were caused by poor infrastructure; now infrastructure has been developed to support increased growth. He’s played a role in this in specific cities.
From the advent of railroads to algorithmic trading, every technology has experienced three phases: a resource-intensive investment phase during which a new technology is created; a bust that follows an exuberant but careless spread of the technology; and a deployment phase during which the technology matures into an infrastructure on top of which new technology is built. –MG on AH
I’m not sure what to make of it. I was quite young during the dot.com collapse. All that I’ve read, data studied, and POV’s I have come across seem to indicate that we’re in an almost identical economic and social position to that of the 2000’s. Valuations also seem to be growing more astronomical–out of touch with the real-world benchmarks.
What AH is pointing to seems to be greater than markets. Yes, markets boom and bust, but beyond markets tech seems to have dug it’s way into every facet of our life. Including how governments and institutions operate. That doesn’t seem to be going away. Technology seems to be leading the charge on solutions–the rest of us seem to be following technology. In that sense, even if we bust–more booms are inevitable. In startup terms: failure is inevitable, but if we fail let’s get over it quickly and get back up. Success is inevitable for the persistent.
My SocMedia friend Michael Gasiorek is hosting Andreessen at Startup Grind in February. Get tickets & read more of what he wrote on AH here. I find it fascinating.